Handicapping 2020

In less than a year from now we will have elected the 46th President of these United States. To get from here to there we will have to endure the 2020 campaign which is just now starting to heat up. It promises to be a tortuous, cringe-worthy slugfest that will call into question our ability as a nation to sustain self government. On the other hand, comedians will have a field day. I have always prided myself on my ability to read the tea leaves of political momentum. In the past I have had a decent record of predicting the outcome of elections in advance. This year I haven’t the foggiest notion of what will happen. Just when I think I have a clue, something weird happens and I’m back to square one. Several times on this blog I have written handicapping posts where I examine the prospects of the various candidates. That’s out the window this time, partially because everything is so out of whack, but mostly because I haven’t watched a single debate and therefore aren’t as well informed as I used to be in these matters. So what follows is more a gut feeling than an analysis of facts. But, since nobody seems to care about actual facts anymore, I feel right at home!

The Republicans

Officially there is only one candidate...the sitting President, Donald Trump. But at the moment he is the subject of an Impeachment inquiry, which calls into question his availability come Election Day. If he survives Impeachment, he will be the candidate. But if he doesn’t, all hell will break loose for Republicans. With Mike Pence being the successor President, he would most likely be the candidate. But, just suppose something happened to disqualify him, or he simply chose not to run? Who on the Republican side of the aisle has the statue and resume to become a Presidential candidate in a pinch? Only a few names come to mind... Condoleezza Rice, Nikki Haley, Mitt Romney, and ??? It really doesn’t matter though, since any candidate who is forced to run as a replacement for an Impeached President has zero chance of winning. So, it’s either Trump or nothing for Republicans. Looking at raw numbers, it doesn’t look good for the Donald. But this is America in 2019. Anything can happen, including his reelection.

The Democrats

I will pretend for a moment to understand the thinking and sensibilities of the Left. I think that of the 157 candidates running for President for the Democrats, only four or five of them have a serious chance at winning the nomination. In my view they are...Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg. Of those four, Biden and Warren feel like first tier. Sanders is too old and way too white. And I don’t think America or even the Democratic Party for that matter is ready for a gay President. That leaves Biden and Warren. Joe Biden seems old and spent to me, and not nearly liberal enough for today’s Democratic Party which seems to sense a generational opportunity to move the country further left than they thought possible in their wildest dreams a mere four years ago. So, I’m thinking that unless something unforeseen takes place, perhaps a personal scandal pops up out of her past bad enough to damage her, (bringing Hillary Clinton back into the race), its Elizabeth Warren’s nomination to lose.

Senator Warren loves to rail against the rich and has promised a grab bag of fresh new entitlements bankrolled by taxing their wealth. In doing so she has an easier path to victory. Who doesn’t relish the thought of getting free stuff paid for by the filthy rich? She may be right in her view that the American people want more socialism and less capitalism. To the extent that she can convince voters that the bounty of free health care, free college tuition, the wiping out of college debt and the Green New Deal etc. won’t cost us anything, just those treacherous billionaires, she could win. If I were a betting man...I would never bet on politics. But, say I was a drunk betting man...I would bet on Warren. Just in case you’re wondering...who would I prefer as President if it had to be a Democrat? Buttigieg. He’s the only non-millionaire in the race and he served his country in the military and is the only candidate running who passes the beer test—which candidate you would most like to have a beer with. He edges out Joe Biden for that honor.

So, there you have it. Trump v. Warren. Good luck, America.