The Good Guys are Winning…So Far

At this point of the unfolding story in Ukraine—Monday morning the 28th of February at 7:34—there are many encouraging developments. The Russian military machine has proven to be about as dependable as your old 1975 Chevette. Instead of a Blitzkrieg their advance has been slowed to a crawl by fuel shortages, lack of continuity and an inability to establish control of the air. But mostly their goals of conquest have been thwarted by the Ukrainian armed forces, a bad-ass citizenry, and a heroic young leader. The combination of all three has produced a world wide wave of support for their cause and an equally unanimous condemnation of Vladimir Putin that has reached every corner of the globe except the far right of the Republican Party. The world loves an underdog and most of the world at least identifies with the victims of aggression, not the perpetrators of aggression.

Which brings me to what for me has been the most positive development of the past week and that is the sea change that has jolted Europe awake from its naïveté. Suddenly, the heroic actions of Ukrainians has inspired countries like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and even France and Germany to actually step up to help. Germany is sending tons of military equipment for the first time in forever. Aid and money and even troop deployments have followed. After a halting start, caution has been thrown to the wind with the imposition of sanctions—the real kind that hurt—not some slap on the wrist half steps. Europe, for what seems like the first time in my adult life, hasn’t been waiting around for Uncle Sam to do all the heavy lifting in the defense of one of their own. In fact, our own response has been prodded along by trying to keep up with the newfound backbone of the Europeans. Biden seems always to be behind the curve of the response level needed. For some what I have just described will sound like a diminishment of American power and prestige. For me this is the greatest news in the area of foreign policy I’ve had in ages. Finally, America isn’t the world’s policeman, the first and last resort. Finally, Europe is taking the lead to try and solve a European problem. Finally, NATO is operating like something other than a proxy for the United States military.

Although this conflict isn’t even a week old at this point and the numbers on the ground still heavily favor the invading Russians, the momentum seems to be firmly on the side of the defenders of democracy. And at this point those defenders are 100% Ukrainian. Their courage, tenacity, and unity of purpose has been an inspiration to the world. It has even moved the pacifist hearts of Europe to action. This borders on the miraculous. Many dangers remain. Putin is on a path that leads to humiliation—always a dangerous corner in which to push an autocrat with a nuclear arsenal. Hit squads are apparently in Ukraine tasked with assassinating Zelensky. The military tide may still turn if the lumbering Russian military finds its stride. But, as of this morning Ukraine is winning, Europe is winning, and we are winning by keeping our military out of the conflict.