The Invasion of Ukraine…a Primer

A tumultuous week ahead, as the world faces the imminent prospect of war in Eastern Europe. Russia gives every indication that it intends to launch an invasion of the independent nation of Ukraine with the 130,000 plus troops that it has assembled on three sides of its border. If this happens, death and destruction will follow, along with turbulence in financial markets all over the world, including sharp increases in the price of oil and other commodities. Of course, the possibility exists that Vladimir Putin is bluffing or some eleventh hour combination of concessions/ face-saving exit strategy will be cobbled together. Although this is unlikely, it is not impossible, and if the crisis were to be averted, those same financial markets would skyrocket in jubilation and relief. Such is the nature of high stakes geopolitical gamesmanship.

Regardless of the outcome, life will go on. The prices of equities and commodities will eventual revert to the mean once the emotions of the moment fade. My views on what the role of the United States should be in this situation have been articulated here many times and will not be repeated. But, my heart goes out to the citizens of Ukraine, those whose lives and fortunes lay in the path of Russian tanks and infantry. The fact that Europe has endured this sort of thing on a ghastly scale twice in the past 90 years is noteworthy in that it has failed to deter the aggressor or properly motivate the intended victim in this case. In other words, instead of learning from history, mankind once again seems destined to repeat it. Russia, who lost more people to the ravages of 20th century wars than any nation on earth seems particularly undeterred by this sad fact. But what of Europe? Where is their urgency to prevent such naked aggression? They seem to feel like it is somehow the responsibility of NATO—by any measure a proxy for the United States—to prevent an outbreak of war, although Ukraine is not a part of NATO. 

What of Poland? Romania? Hungary and Czechoslovak-Slovakia? All of these countries used to be a part of the old Soviet Union, and are the focus of Putin’s ambition. While he is no Communist and doesn’t long for a return to that disaster, he is a nationalist and longs for a return to Russian hegemony and dominance over Eastern Europe. In other words, he’s your basic garden variety despot who wants to gobble up anything he thinks belongs to Mother Russia. None of this should come as a surprise to anyone with even an entry level understanding of the history of civilization—not to mention anyone who is spending time reading through the Bible! Modernity has not repealed the laws of power. All of our vane ideas of woke-ness, all of our naive assumptions of some new world order of enlightenment fall to pieces when confronted with a couple divisions of infantry in the hands of motivated Nationalist. To quote that great philosopher, Mike Tyson, “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”