The Carrier Deal

Let me begin this blogpost with an apology to any of you who hate economics. I do too, actually. But, every once in a while something happens which forces me, kicking and screaming, to examine the murky world of tax and spending policy, subjects about which I am certainly no expert. So, much of what follows may sound contradictory. Welcome to the counter intuitive Fun House ride at the Washington DC fair!

The big story yesterday was Trump "saving 1000 jobs" at an Indiana Carrier factory, jobs that had been slated for outsourcing to Mexico. There was the President-Elect standing in front of jubilant Carrier employees, already making good on campaign promises, fifty full days before taking office. Details of the deal he made with Carrier were not released, but tax relief of some kind was offered to the company as an inducement to keep the jobs stateside, no doubt. Thus began a firestorm of thoughts and feelings inside my head. First, it's almost impossible not to be happy for the men and women whose jobs got saved. Imagine how terrible it would be to be entering the Christmas season knowing that you were headed for the unemployment line in January? So, lots of happy thoughts. But then I start thinking about...the deal. Reports were that tax incentives worth nearly $800 per job were given to Carrier. Here's where the murky starts.

Our nation has both a unbalanced budget problem and a national debt problem. That means that the $800 in taxes per saved job not paid by Carrier will either have to be paid for by someone else or will simply make both of the aforementioned problems worse. The someone else in my last sentence might end up being Carrier's competitors like Trane, York, or Bryant. I wonder how those three companies felt hearing the news that their number one competitor just got wheelbarrow's full of cash from the government? I suppose the lost revenue from this deal could be made up by simply cutting spending by the exact amount of the lost revenue...but who am I kidding? That conservatives would be hailing this as some sort of victory for America is odd since what it looks like to me is government putting its awkward thumb on the scales, the very definition of crony capitalism. Many of the same conservatives gleeful over this deal were furious when Obama did the same thing for Solyndra. Granted, Carrier is a profitable company which makes stuff people actually want to buy, whereas Solyndra did neither, but the principle is the same.

Soon another head scratcher will come to pass. When Trump announces his infrastructure stimulus plan, I assume that conservative Republicans will approve the plan no matter how much new debt it piles on top of the 20 trillion we already have. Suddenly, government spending money it first has to borrow will be ok again. My son will once again ask me why the national debt is such an awful thing since, "nobody on either side is talking about it." And I will be left with nothing to say except, at some point 20 trillion dollars in debt has to be serviced and you keep adding to it and one day it's going to wipe you out. To which, big government types counter with, "Oh yeah???" as they crank up the money printing machine at Treasury.

It's not that I want jobs to go to Mexico or anyplace else for that matter. But how is it a good thing to bribe someone to do something with money you don't have? And where does the bribing stop? If you decide as a country to erect barriers to the free flow of capital, you ultimately wind up with...Cuba, right?

But, what do I know?

The Morning After

I watched the returns last night in my library on my iPad, having lost faith in television media the day that Tim Russert died. I spent the evening and a fair part of the wee hours of this day going back and forth between the New York Times website, the AP and Reuters wire, and the Twitter feed of the #NeverTrump guys over at National Review. It was an astonishing upset which I have still not completely come to terms with. I am fully aware that this is a deadly serious matter and many of you are either exultant or devastated at the moment, so I must tread lightly. But, I only know one way of dealing with life's difficulties and that's through humor. Some may call it gallows humor, but humor nonetheless. So, with my tongue lodged firmly in my cheek, I offer you a more lighthearted interpretation of last night's historic election.

1. The most anticipated and longed for nine words in the English language will be, "May I help you with your bags, Mrs. Streisand?"

2. Job number one for the Clinton team is finding property in a country without an extradition treaty with the U.S.

3. If I owned stock in the Clinton Foundation, I would be selling.

4. One ironic thing about last night was the fact that the Democrats were ultimately done in by their own preferred strategy...identity politics. Only this time, instead of blacks or Latinos voting as a monolithic block, it was the white working class, who gave nearly 70% of their vote to Trump. To my Democratic friends I can only say, "frustrating, isn't it?"

5. One thing that popped in my head when they called Pennsylvania for Trump. . .where are they
going to put his tanning bed in the White House? Surely not in the Oval Office, right?

6. To my great dismay, I saw Facebook posts last night from Christians about how their Bible Study groups had been transformed into celebratory Trump parties. Yeah, I get it. . .abortion. . .but if I live to be a hundred I will never be able to wrap my head around this Trump-love among believers. I just can't. . .

7. Here's a prediction. Four years from now, abortion will still be the law of the land.

8. With the election of Donald Trump, the American people have now permanently lowered the bar for admission to the Oval Office to serial adulterers, gropers, and casino and strip club owners. Way to go, America. Good luck with that!

9. Evangelical Christians have lost forever the spiritual authority to criticize the immorality of politicians seeking the highest office in the land.

10. The American people finally drove a nail in the coffin of the Clinton Dynasty. Not at all a bad thing.

11. It should be fairly pointed out that there was not a single incident of violence perpetrated by an angry, disillusioned Evan McMullin voter last night.

12. I'm told by many of my Christian friends that Trump will be guided by and faithful to the Republican Party platform. This despite the fact that he has been an actual Republican for approximately 15 minutes of his life.

13. If it is true that during the campaign, Mr. Trump became a Christian, then Mike Pence has just become the single most important accountability partner in the history of evangelism.

14. The poor men and women at CNN must be thinking, "If our 24-7 cheerleading for Hillary couldn't put her over the top against freaking TRUMP, what good are we??!!"

Does NOT Paying Taxes Make You Smart?

Nobody loves paying taxes. Even the most liberal Hollywood celebrity who can be counted on to support every big government project has accountants on his/her payroll whose job it is to avoid paying them as much as the law allows. I'm no celebrity and I can be counted on to oppose most big government projects, and I have an accountant who is charged with the same task. But, I feel compelled to make it clear that if my accountant presented me with a legal scheme that would lower my tax bill to zero, I would decline it. Why? Let me try to explain the unexplainable.

When I heard the Donald in the debate the other night say that if he paid no federal taxes on his alleged 600 million dollar income, that would make him smart, it touched a nerve with me. I don't know the first thing about Trump's finances. Although my gut tells me that when someone talks about his personal wealth so much it usually means that he isn't as wealthy as advertised. But, for our discussion let's assume that he truly is as loaded as he claims. Does avoiding taxes on a multi-million dollar income make him smart?

I find it easy to believe that someone with a great accountant, especially someone in the real estate business could, in fact, find a legal way to avoid paying federal income taxes. That's because our Rube Goldberg contraption of a tax code, with its 7000 pages of addendum, codicils and waivers lends itself to this sort of thing. When lobbyists and politicians and lawyers write the laws, what would you expect? So, it's probably legal. But is it smart? No. Here's why.

Let's imagine that Mr. Trump lived under a flat tax of 17%. That would mean he would owe the Treasury roughly 100 million on a 600 million dollar income. By not paying, the burden of funding the government's latest boondoggle falls to someone else. But the funding of the legitimate functions of government falls to someone else too. That aircraft carrier doesn't pay for itself! So, guess who ends up paying the freight? Not the poorest Americans. Not even the lower 45% of earners who currently pay no income taxes because of things like the earned income tax credit and the home mortgage deduction etc. etc. Yes, you guessed it, the middle class, specifically the upper middle class.

But, there's another reason why not paying your taxes is not smart. It means you are a lousy citizen and even worse, an ingrate. We live in the greatest nation on this planet. There is more opportunity here than anywhere else in the world. We live a life of comfort, plenty and ease unimaginable in most of the rest of the world. I thank God every day for allowing me to be born an American. One of the things that makes America work is a functioning government. As a citizen, although I may not like how my tax dollars are spent and although I may think our tax code stinks to high heaven, it's my job to pay what I owe. Somebody has to defend us, somebody has to administer our system of justice, someone has to build bridges, hospitals and highways. When I pay my taxes, I participate in providing the funds that allow my country to work. When I  weasel out of paying, I become a fake citizen, in essence . . . A freeloader.

Yes, I allow my accountant to claim my mortgage interest deduction. Yes, I keep my business receipts. Yes, I established a c-corporation years ago to help lower my tax bill. But, I have declined other, more imaginative schemes to avoid taxes, partly because I didn't understand them, but partly because I feel blessed in this life. America has been one of the greatest things to ever happen to me and I did nothing to earn the title American. It was an accident of birth. But the prosperous life I've built here is no accident. It has come about in no small part because the freedoms I enjoy here, and freedom isn't free, my friends.

So, on the fifteenth of every month, I make sure there's enough money in my business checking account to cover the IRS draw. I complain about it. I grumble and moan. But I pay, and a part of me feels good and grateful. If that makes me dumb, so be it.

Is Donald Really a "Strong Christian?"

 Every day now we seem to discover some new wrinkle in the grand tapestry that is Donald Trump. Just yesterday, for instance, we learned that he has been audited every single year since 2003! Moreover, Mr. Trump offered an opinion on just why it is that he has been so targeted by the IRS..."Because I'm a strong Christian."

Well, far be it from me to question anyone's sincere religious convictions, but, when searching for descriptive adjectives to describe Donald J. Trump, I'm pretty sure that strong Christian would be maybe 116th on my list...just before humble and right after thoughtful. But, thanks to Google, it's possible to delve into anyone's past to find evidence of strong Christian character. I did so this morning, and must confess that in this case, Trump is right...he IS a strong Christian!

Here is a picture of Donald with his accountability group after their weekly bible study at Trump Tower.

Here's Donald with three college girls lucky enough to have had him finance their mission trip to El Salvadore.

Here's Donald posing for a picture at the Taj Mahal casino just before attending a chapel service in the conference room behind the nickel slots.

Here's Donald congratulating two recent converts after their baptism.

Donald's personal pastor.

Donald preparing to say grace before the National Prayer Breakfast..."Before I deliver my amazing prayer...pull my finger!!"

Debate Notes

Notes from last night's debate. This picture tells the story!

Trump doesn't even try to be a clever liar. It's like he's thinking, "What the hell? Lying has always worked for the Clinton's!"

For Trump, what he believes is always the next thing he says.

Rubio has been awesome tonight. Combative, relentless, sarcastic, finally aggressively going after Trump. I guess he figures, "...what have I got to lose?" 

Great exchange:

Rubio: If Trump builds the wall the same way he built Trump Towers, he'll do it with illegal workers.

Trump: You don't know anything about business.

Rubio: You're right, I don't know anything about bankrupting companies.

Every time this debate starts to kick some serious butt, Wolf Blitzer throws a question to John Kasich...the human time-out.

Carson: Will somebody attack me, please? Beyond pathetic.

Oh, ok. Now that Rubio is finally insisting that the quarterback actually show us his homework, people are upset at the nastiness and name calling. So, what do you want? This isn't Aristotle v. Plato people! The only thing I'm mad about right now is that it took Rubio this freaking long to go after this fool.

Great exchange:

Rubio: You lied about the Polish workers.

Trump: yeah, yeah, yeah. 38 years ago!

Rubio: Oh, 38 years ago? I guess there's a statute of limitations on lies.

I see this morning that his Trumpness has won all of the online polls asking, Who won last night's debate?

Well, I suppose that settles it...we are doomed.

Poll Results and Commentary

                                                                      

                                                                      VS.

A presidential campaign between these two would be the stuff from which nightmares are made. Nevertheless, with each passing day of this interminable race, it appears more and more inevitable. For this reason, I commissioned the first ever Tempest Poll this morning in order to take the pulse of my readers on the subject. Now that 100% of all precincts have reported, I can share the results.

First of all, let me say that today set an all time record for traffic. Several hundred different people read about the poll on my blog. However, just like in America at large... A very small percentage of readers actually voted, only 13% in fact. Despite the low voter participation rate, the exchange of views on my Facebook page was civil and courteous, which I appreciate more than I can say. So, here are the results:

Trump.....39%

Clinton....22%

No vote...39%

Some of you hated the choices. Others, wished for a third party option and some more actually wrote in candidates. While I sympathize with each of you, it's my poll, and I can ask the question any way I wish. The burning question on your minds is probably, "Ok, hotshot. How did you vote??"

I voted for Hillary.

Now, I'm sure there are some of you who may have just spit sweet tea across the kitchen. Others may be ready to block me from all of your social media accounts, still others may even now be on your knees in fervent prayer for my wayward soul. But, before you have a cow, hear me out.

I am under no illusions about the Hildebeast. She is a corrupt, lying, career feather-bedder, who on her worst day would make Claire Underwood look like Mother Theresa. I feel certain that she will make a horrid President largely because of her arrogance and hilariously exalted view of her own greatness. On the subject of exalted self regard, Hillary Clinton is outdone by only one person in America today...Donald Trump!

As a Libertarian-leaning, small government fiscal conservative, voting for Hillary Clinton will no doubt make me feel very dirty. As soon as I get back home, it will be straight in the shower for me! I see eye to eye with her on practically nothing. And yes, if she becomes President, she will get the chance to appoint judges to the Supreme Court which could allow her Statist views of government to carry the day for years to come. But, this is where people like me say a prayer of thanks for our founding fathers and the brilliance of their gift to us of three branches of government. Checks and balances are very cool. And perhaps I should remind all of you conservatives out there that it was George W. Bush who gave us that stout originalist, John Roberts as Cheif Justice. How has that worked out??

So, despite the many flaws of Ms. Clinton, what really will force me to choke back the rising vomit in the back of my throat and actually vote for the woman is this sobering thought...Donald J. Trump as Commander-in-Chief. Can any of you imagine this guy in charge of the mightiest, most deadly killing force in the world? 

"Mr. President, we have a situation in Yemen. A group of armed terrorists have kidnapped our entire diplomatic team and is holding them in an unknown location, and..."

Trump: Wait, did you say Yemen? You can't be serious? Have you ever been to Yemen? I've been to Yemen. I was going to build a golf course there once so I flew over and I can tell you, it's a hell hole. Bunch of f**king losers! Send in the heavy bombers and flatten the go****n place!

"But, Mr. President, what about our diplomatic team??"

Trump: What about 'em? They can't be but so good, right? If they were real winners, what the hell are they doing in freaking Yemen!!??

Then, there's the question of experience. Now, I know that right now the mood of the country isn't interested in experience, matter of fact, it's viewed as a liability. After all, it's been the best and the brightest who haven't been able to figure out how to secure our borders. But experience in the Oval Office is sort of a good thing. Knowing a little something about how Congress works, how a bill becomes a law...that sort of thing...I think is needed. One gets the impression with Trump that he hasn't the foggiest notion how he intends to actually get anything done. When he says, "I'm gonna put the very best people on that and we are going to do the greatest deals ever," that's essentially code for, "I don't know what the hell Im talking about."

Listen, either one of these two becomes President, the next four or eight years is going to be a white knuckle ride on the lunatic express, but at least with Hillary, we will have some semblance of predictability, and because of her husband, at least some institutional memory from which to draw. And something tells me that Hillary will be less likely to get us into a war with somebody because she was caught flirting with the First Lady of Burma.

And finally, there's the issue of what kind of man Donald Trump happens to be. For the life of me I can't understand news stories I read about how much of the evangelical vote Trump is getting. Does anyone actually believe that if a liberal Democrat male like say, Martin O'Malley was ahead in the polls and went around bragging about how many women he had slept with in his life...does anybody not believe that conservative Christians would be howling about his immorality? Yet, Trump can do just that, and while he's at it, say creepy things about his hot daughter, and throw in profanity on the stump, with nary a peep of protests by the evangelical community. No, either morality matters or it doesn't. I think it does matter. It's not the only thing that matters, but it counts for something.

So, there you have it. Maybe it won't come down to this Hobson's choice. Maybe Hillary will get indicted for having that illegal server. Maybe It will be discovered that Trump is actually an alien and as such was not born on this planet, therefore is not a natural born earthling. Good Lord, I hope so. Because, if I have to actually go through with this voting for Hillary thing, I'm note sure I'll ever recover.