Three Weeks Until Iowa...handicapping the field!

Yesterday’s stunning news that Cory Booker, aka Spartacus, has exited the Presidential race means that the Democratic Party will not be nominating a person of color as their candidate in 2020. Now the choice seems to have boiled down to one woman and four men, three of whom qualify as members of the single most despised demographic in the hierarchy of identity politics that is the modern Democratic Party—old white men. With just three weeks left until the Iowa caucuses, what follows is my attempt to handicap the field. Admittedly, this is like an anthropological experiment, akin to a westerner observing a tribe of pygmies in their natural habitat in the Amazon. All of these people seem alien to my experiences and beliefs about how the world works and there is only one of them who I would want to have a beer with, more on that later, but nonetheless here goes:

Elizabeth Warren

At one point not very long ago she was the odds on favorite. She is an accomplished and committed leftist who in a pinch could check the minority box with her Native American roots. She seems sufficiently angry enough to appeal to the dominant progressive base which prizes righteous indignation at the moment. But something has stalled in her campaign. The money isn’t coming in like it was. Her standing in the polls has slipped. I honestly have no idea why. But she is still a formidable candidate. I wouldn’t write her off. Chances of winning the nomination? 5-1

Bernie Sanders

Very old. Very white. Very angry. Very formidable. He’s proudly Socialist at a time when that is considered an asset, not a liability in the Democratic Party. He’s the guy who worries the establishment wing of the Party. It is rumored that he is the candidate that Trump most wants to run against. He has the juice right now. His crowds are teeming with the young and the restless. He’s got his 5 million donors. He’s promising free everything and no more wars and seems sincere on both counts. He also is fresh off a heart scare. Chances of winning the nomination? 6-1

Joe Biden

Very old. Very white. Big, toothy smile. A little slow on the uptick. Reminds everyone in America of their favorite Uncle. He seems all wrong for the moment at which his Party and the country has arrived. But his name recognition and his association with Obama is a powerful formula, especially with black voters, no small contingency in the Democratic Party. His chances at winning the nomination? 4-1

Pete Buttigieg 

Young smart and even tempered, this midwestern small town mayor who, thanks to his sexual orientation appeals to the deep pockets in Hollywood, is the candidate who won’t go away for the Democrats. He has that one ingredient that all the other candidates lack and envy...authenticity. This guy is bright, thoughtful, pleasant, and served his country in the military. In case you’re wondering, he’s the only one in the field who I wouldn’t mind having a beer with, getting to know. I would hear this guy out. He has the maturity and level-headedness that Americans want in a President. Chances that the Democratic Party will roll the dice on a gay mayor? 20-1

Michael Bloomberg

The latest billionaire attempting to spend his way into the White House. His record setting media buy has launched this particular vanity project into the first tier of candidates. But he’s also a little long in the tooth and his New York City resume isn’t likely to attract very many heartlanders. But, he’s a fast talking politician with money to back up his mouth. This is 2020 and anything can happen, I suppose. Chances at him being successful buying the nomination? 10-1

Yes, I know...there are other candidates still in the race. But none of them are worth mentioning because none of them have a chance.