In past election years in this space I have offered opinions on the relative chances of Presidential candidates actually becoming President. It was my amateur attempt at political handicapping. I feel that since we are now actually counting votes—or in the case of Iowa, attempting to count votes—I should probably offer up the 2020 version. If you are interesting in my tract record at prognostication, check out the archives from 2016 and 2012. (Hint: It ain’t bad.) Keep in mind as you read this that I make no judgements about the political proposals of these men and women. This is merely a discussion of their chances of winning their party’s nomination. Not being a Democrat myself, I have no dog in this fight, just the trick knee of someone who has been paying attention to Presidential elections since 1972. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 13 of these babies. So, like Farmers Insurance, I’ve seen a thing or two.
Candidates: (in alphabetical order)
Joe Biden
- Not chronologically the oldest of the four septuagenarians on the Democratic side of this race, but it sure seems that way. Biden entered this contest as the odds on favorite. He alone commands the mantle of his predecessor. He alone had the establishment’s full throated backing. And he is toast. It’s difficult to watch a man who has clearly rounded the bend and is now barreling headlong down the backstretch to diminished mental capacity. When you listen to Biden speak its as if there is a giant disconnect between his brain and the words that fly out of his mouth. He knows what he wants to say, but simply can’t string together the right words in the correct order.
Chances of winning the nomination 25:1
Pete Buttigieg
- This 38 year old small town mayor has an impressive resume in everything except government. Served his country in Afghanistan, a Rhodes scholar, and easily the brightest light on the stage. His tenure as mayor isn’t exactly where he would begin an auto-biography. If he was smart he would avoid talking about it altogether (check out the crime statistics in South Bend). And he IS smart. From my perspective, Mayor Pete is the only Democratic candidate who actually seems to...like people. Would I want to have a beer with this man? Absolutely. Wild horses couldn’t drag me to a bar with any of the rest of them. Being the youngest candidate to come along in quite a while, he probably is the only one who actually remembers that dreadful week in senior US Government class when we all learned...How A Bill Becomes A Law. He seems to understand that to get anything meaningful done in Washington much more often than not requires forming coalitions which usually involves actually convincing someone on the other side. He has the temperament and seemingly the will to at least attempt to find compromise. But, he is a gay man, and that is not an inconsequential fact in 2020, despite the rapid evolution of our country with respect to sexuality. My estimation is that there are at least 25% of the population (democrats and republicans) who will not vote for a gay man. I think that is too high a hurdle to clear.
Chances of winning the nomination 20:1
Michael Bloomberg
- The 60 Billion dollar man, 200 million in to his ad blitz was streaking across the democratic firmament like a ground breaking epiphany. Then he walked out onto the Nevada debate stage exuding all the personal warmth of an iguana. His performance was so pathetic, he made Joe Biden look eloquent. Still, he, unlike Mayor Pete had many successes as mayor of the most difficult city in America to govern. The amount of money he has already spent amounts to nothing more than a rounding error of his personal wealth...so there’s a whole lot more where that came from. But he’s going to have to do a better job of faking sincerity and defending himself in debates if he wants to win.
Chances of winning the nomination: 10:1
Amy Klobuchar
- The reasonably aged 59 year old senator from Minnesota has been a surprise. Given no chance of success by all the usual suspects, she has carved out two decent showings in the early contests and does a good job in the debates. In an environment of unreasonableness she seems ruthlessly reasonable. I can imagine her being able to hammer out compromise and forging coalitions...in Senate subcommittees, but not in the White House. She needs another four years to develop into a President-sized talent. Meanwhile, I would be willing to bet large sums of money that she will be the VP nominee.
Chances of winning the nomination 30:1
Bernie Sanders
- The proud Socialist is unique for many reasons. He’s the only Democratic candidate who is not an actual Democrat. He’s the oldest in an old field. And he is the clear front runner, much to the bowel-stewing consternation of the Party big shots. He is carried aloft by mostly young people who aren’t old enough to remember his behavior in the 1970’s when he was most famous for his consistent apologetics for the Soviet Union and any other enemy of the United States, most famously with his classic, “Bread Lines are good!!” Its hard for someone like me who has been listening to this guy bitch and moan about this country all of my life, claiming that every single one of our enemies were morally superior to America, now watching him celebrated as some sort of champion of democracy and freedom. But, right now his Socialism is chic and unless he has another heart attack or the Democratic establishment figures out a way to cheat him out of the nomination, he’s going to win it.
Chances of winning the nomination 5:1
Elizabeth Warren
- A former front runner with a strong organization and even stronger leadership team has been a disaster as an actual candidate. Her brand of hostile, technocratic coldness might work in Massachusetts, but so far, national voters just aren’t into this finger jabbing scold. Yes, she cleaned Bloomberg’s clock in that debate and is good in debates generally largely because she is smart as a whip. But, is it just me or does she give off the impression that she really really doesn’t like people very much. Listen, she wouldn’t be the first elite politician who didn’t particularly care for their constituents, but the really good politicians, not to mention Presidents, are the ones who do a better job of hiding the disdain. Ronald Reagan was great at it, Bill Clinton even better. Elizabeth Warren, not so much. I still think she has a shot, but she needs a win...badly, and soon.
Chances of winning the nomination 15:1
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