Thursday, August 11, 2011

Stuff I Actually DO Know

There are a thousand things about the global financial crisis now occurring about which I am completely in the dark. The level of interconnected complexities inherent in this system is beyond my pay grade. However, there are several things about this mess that I know, without a doubt to be certifiably true. The first step in understanding the complex is to clearly state what is known. So, in the spirit of discovery, and for personal therapeutic reasons, I offer the following certainties:

1. American banks, large and small, have on their balance sheets millions of underwater mortgages. These were ill-advised loans made to unqualified borrowers with insufficient equity stakes in property which has dropped precipitously in value. Now the banks “own” homes that are worth far less than what the bank is owed. There are many villains in this stupid tale, banker greed, home-owner vanity, government malfeasance etc.. but at this point it doesn’t matter. The problem is primarily this, how does the bank put a value on this huge section of their balance sheet? Exactly how much is all of that real estate worth..today? They don’t know. How long will it take for real estate prices to recover so as to remove this albatross from their future profitability? Nobody knows. If nobody knows the answers to these vexing questions, then how can a reasonable investor make an informed decision about the health and safety of banks? This explains everything I need to know about why banks are so reluctant to lend money these days.

2. American banks and huge brokerage firms like Goldman-Sachs have always loved buying the stock of other banks and brokerage firms, especially those in Europe. Even better, they love buying the sovereign debts of those countries. So, if Greece or Italy, Spain, Portugal, or even France were to default, then that would mean that American banks would hold even MORE worthless stuff than they do now! Who knows, maybe their holdings of sovereign debt would be so awful, it would make everyone stop worrying about all the worthless real estate they own!

3. America is filled with men and women who don’t participate in recessions. These hardy business owners are so busy producing goods and services at a fair value, they don’t have time to watch CNBC and listen to all the experts tell us how terrible things are. They spend most of their spare time trying to figure ways to get better. It’s these people who keep this country afloat and I thank God every day for each and every one of them. But these men and women, who pay this country’s’ bills are not indestructible. They have been taxed, regulated, impugned and harassed to within an inch of their lives over the past twenty years or so, and my biggest fear is that one day they are going to tell the rest of us to take a hike. One day the entrepreneurial class in America just might say…”Let me up, I’ve had enough”. If that day ever comes, we are screwed.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Stuff I Thought I Knew

The list of things that I thought I understood but now realize that I’m clueless about continues to get longer. They include but are not limited to the following:

1. The assumption that under girds all of Western Civilization that in times of great crisis, the cream rises to the top. The notion that great leaders evolve out of the stress and tumult of great events providing steadiness and visionary leadership. Just a few examples would include Queen Elizabeth, and Winston Churchill from Great Britain, Charlemagne, Otto Von Bismarck and Martin Luther from Germany, and even (although I know this is a stretch) Charles De Gaulle from France. In our own country, in just 235 short years, our turbulent seas have brought forth Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Abe Lincoln, two Roosevelts etc..etc.. But in 2011 we are being governed by the three little pigs ( Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke ) and a host of incompetent boobs in Congress from the shrill and inept Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to the blandly uninspiring Republican trio of Eric Cantor, Mitch McConnell and the creepy tan-in-a-can John Boehnor. Add to this the prospect of a 2012 presidential campaign of Obama vs. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs and well, so much for assumption number 1.

2. I invest money for a living so I know all about the volatility of the stock market. I’m totally aware of the random walk theory of equity prices. I completely get the short term insanity that can sometimes grip investors. But when I see in one trading day the Dow go up 200 points, stay in that general range most of the day, then tank into negative territory in a matter of minutes after one of the Three Little Pigs referenced above opens their pie-holes, then in less than an hour skyrocket to finish up 429 points on the day I can only conclude that…somebody is screwing with us. There’s just something not quite random about this walk and it has me watching the skies for black helicopters.

3. As a Christian I have always believed that our faith was what made the ultimate difference in how we handled adversity. While certainly not exempting us from the vagaries of life, faith in Christ would allow us to accept any cruelty of circumstance that might one day come our way with grace and good cheer. As I have gotten older however I am increasingly seeing that ultimately it hasn’t made a measurable difference. We all get old and infirm and we all rail against the ravages of time with far less grace than many non-believers. For this reason I wish to die in a plane crash or some sky-diving accident or unfortunate bathroom incident before the anger and bitterness of growing old lays bare my lack of faith to my children.

4. Even though here in the West we like to indulge the sociologists among us with their dopey excuse making when it comes to violence and mischief-making by the underclass, I have always believed that this was simply an indulgence that could only thrive in times of relative peace. Surely if hoodlums actually went wild in the inner cities and started pillaging entire cities the grownups would wake up and impose order out of the chaos. But the past three days has seen bands of hooded punks literally burning down the great city of London and the ruling elites of that once great country have spent three days debating whether to deploy the “water-canon” to restore order, debating whether it was moral to fire rubber bullets at the mob. Politician after politician has risen up in Parliament to blame “budget cuts “ for the mayhem while the rest of England has watched gleeful teenagers balancing big screen TV’s on their shoulders stolen from burning stores with no police in sight. Have we actually come to the place where we lack even enough confidence to defend society from lawlessness?? Apparently so.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

And Now For Something Completely Different...

And now for something completely different…truth in politics. Wouldn’t it be great if politicians felt secure enough to tell us what they really think? Suppose there were no polls or focus groups and the two parties could just come out with it. Because we are Americans this concept seems incomprehensible. We are conditioned to spin-meisters. All of us instinctively know that whatever our elected officials say is carefully field-tested to appeal to the widest demographic possible. Consequently, we sorta know that we’re being lied to and we accept it as a political fact of life. But, how cool would it be if they just threw caution to the wind and let fire with what all of them wish they could say?

For Democrats it would be liberating. They could stop pretending to like the private sector. They could just come out and say that business is evil and it’s the job of government to take as much money from the rich as humanly possible. See, the problem isn’t that we have too many entitlement programs that cost too much, the problem is that we don’t have enough welfare and the only reason we have budget shortfalls is because the American people don’t pay enough in taxes. Democrats know that the average American is too stupid and too lazy to take care of himself. Besides, even if he can, the odds are stacked against him because this country is irretrievably racist, homophobic, and misogynistic. Those who have succeeded have done so through no personal ingenuity, but rather on the backs of others. Therefore the government has an obligation to step in and level the playing field by eliminating the class and economic disparities that unfairly exist in our society. For Democrats history is simply the story of mankind evolving away from the greed and self-interest of the individual to the utopian paradise of the collective. Each of us needs to give up our personal ambitions and desires and let the government have more and more of our money so that all of the ambitions and desires of everyone can be achieved. They could just cut all the crap about tax rates and fairness and just go ahead and say that the rich should pay a minimum of 75% of their income in taxes and be grateful that it isn’t 90%. With the new-found revenue that would flow into Washington, the great society would finally be in reach. Everyone would have free health care. College education would be free to all. People who lose their jobs would get 100% of their pay for as long as it took until they found a job. Housing would be free. Food would be free. It would be a beautiful world.

For Republicans it would be equally liberating. They could stop pretending to support Social Security and Medicare. They could just admit that the only reason they say that they do support these things is that they realize that the American people do by huge margins and to say otherwise would destroy their careers. They could unburden themselves of their core belief that all of the welfare legislation that has been passed from FDR through LBJ is in the process of destroying the fabric of the country by turning us into a nation of dependant slobs. The type of Americans who established the 13 colonies, tamed the West, and won WWII no longer exist because the modern welfare state has destroyed the epic American spirit of rugged individuality and self reliance. The modern nanny state has made pussies of us all. The real problem with the debt ceiling is that it should be lowered, not raised and we should be talking about scaling back government spending, not just slowing its growth. For Republicans, it would be such fun to just look out at a rally and say something like…”If you people expect the government to take care of you, then move to Norway! This is America. The sky is the limit here and if you want a big slice of it, its yours for the taking. Elect me and I’ll fight to help you keep as much of your own money as possible. But don’t even think of asking me to trim the defense budget because we republicans love the concept of Empire and we like to be able to kick ass every once in awhile. Oh, and if you lose your job, don’t come running to us to pay you a bunch of money for sitting on your assets for two years looking for work. That’s what a savings account is for! Want health care?…buy insurance. Can’t get insurance because youre sick? Sorry. Life is and always has been unfair. Think the government should pay all of your medical bills?…then move to Cuba. I mean really…you think we can provide health insurance for 300 million people? Have you been to the DMV or tried to mail a package at the Post Office lately? You’re on your own out there, like its been for 5000 years of recorded history…deal with it!”

The truth is this. There are more Americans who want the government to take care of them than there are Americans who want the government to leave them alone. Which is why we have a debt ceiling crisis. Ultimetely, the Democrats will win and before too much longer they won’t have to lie about it anymore.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Dummers Beach Journal...Part Five

Our last day at Dummers dawned clear and bright and I felt like my old self. I slept all the way through the night and awoke without a headache. I drove up to Morning Glory bakery, bought 4 muffins and a paper and returned to camp to drink my coffee on the beach. The mountains looked bigger somehow and closer. The sky was filled with thin feathery clouds with a soft half-moon still visable against the pale blue. The forecast was for hot temperatures today but just as I headed back to camp for breakfast a wind had started to blow, raising waves from west to east across the lake, a good sign.

Breakfast was typical Webb Lake cuisine. Bacon and ham, French toast, muffins and juice, and for the first time all week I could actually taste it. Wonderful. By this time a steady wind was blowing, the thin high clouds were thinning further and the sun was getting hotter. We made it to the beach by 10 or so and immediately went for a swim. The water was surprisingly warm and the slow agony of walking a half an hour in thirty minutes before we could jinn up the courage to go under was replaced by going under right away and doing the Dummers Beach crawl in reverse. All morning the view across the lake was stunning. At one point a float plane circled overhead, landed about a mile to the north then took off again soaring up towards Tumbledown mountain. The dude was clearly showing off and I was insanely jealous. Pam suggested that the four of us head to the canteen for a snack. All the very best candy was available, cow tails, Snickers, and the most delicious Nutty Buddy ever! Upon returning to our favorite spot on the beach and after an hour or so of reading, Pam and Kaitlin decided that it was time for lunch. Flashing their best 19th century feminine wiles they offered to serve us on the beach! There would be fluffer-nutter sandwiches, finely sliced chunks of watermelon, our choice of chips, and cold iced tea. Clearly, this place has magical powers.

The rest of the day was spent swimming, floating on rafts, and engaging each other in relaxed conversation. Surprisingly, no tears were shed. Because this would be the last day, Pam was determined to stay in the moment and enjoy every second. After a delicious dinner of Italian grilled chicken, we all loaded up in two cars and made the pilgrimage all the way to Farmington for Gifford’s Ice Cream. The night was perfect with not a trace of humidity, a fine breeze blowing. Heading back to camp we could see the fiery western sky in the distance. The sunset at camp would be incredible if only we could make it there in time. Although we missed the best of it, we all gathered in chairs by the lake to watch the dying embers of this perfect day in Maine. The camp fire later was quiet and soothing, but the smoke kept drifting to where Russ sat. He pointed out that this simply proved the old adage that smoke follows the “most beautiful” person!

We awoke to dark skies and a light mournful rain. It seems that every year we pack up in the rain. Sharon thought that the Lake was crying with us. It was a very sad morning. After saying our good-byes we began the 14 hour trip home. For Pam the tears didn’t slow until we made it to the Maine Turnpike. We arrived home at 11:15 last night to a rapturous welcome from Molly. Now I face the tyrannies that await me at the office, the demands that the real world makes upon me. Today I will rest, prepare for the hectic week ahead, and do my chores. But in a quiet corner of my mind I will linger on that beach and listen for the Loons.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Dummers Beach Journal...Part Four

Of all of the most dreaded contingencies of life, being ill while on vacation isn’t the worse thing that can happen to someone, I suppose. I mean, it’s certainly not as bad as being told by a doctor that you have a rare disease that will prohibit you from ever eating cheese again. It’s not as bad as being forced to watch reality TV all day, or even worse...C-SPAN. But as someone who has been sick almost from the day that I arrived on the sun-splashed shores of Webb Lake, I am here to tell you that it IS worse than most things.

Yesterday it got so bad I had to drive myself to the Farmington Medical Center. I was prepared to write a snarky piece about my experiences in what I was sure would be some rundown backwoods hospital. I had even come up with a name for the place…the Farmington Medical Center/ Book-Emporium/ Late-Night Car Wash, etc.. But I was pleasantly surprised to find the place to be a first-class facility with courteous, competent employees who all seemed devastated that I was here on vacation and had gotten sick. They were even more devastated to tell me that I had the mother of all colds, a venomous brew of bronchitis and sinusitis that would require high powered antibiotics and strong cough medicines. Today I sleep-walked through the day. But tonight I’m screwing on a happy face and taking the family to the Kawanhee Inn for a lovely dinner which for me will be tasteless. Afterwards, as is our tradition, we will pose for a photograph on the beautiful deck that overlooks this great lake. When you see it, you will not be able to tell that I am sick. But every time I look at it for the rest of my life, I will remember the endless coughing, no appetite, sleep-deprived, getting up to pee 5 times a night because of the stupid medicine I was taking ordeal that this week has been.

Today at lunch Vi walked up to the table all excited to tell us that they had in fact sold the camper for full price to a couple of real nice Christian ladies who were just thrilled to have it. Pam instantaneously burst into tears. Even though she understands what good news this was for them, my wife is a person of huge heart and immense loyalties. When the finality of the transaction was announced, she just was overwhelmed with loss. I feel for her and admire the intensity of her emotion. The next few days will be tough last days, as all “last days” are but we will get through it as a family. It’s what families do. It will be my job for the rest of my life to find a place that will, over time, take up residence in her heart. Nothing will ever replace Dummers for Pam, but a new place that we can call home in July will help us build new memories. Family is all about place, and for Pam this was that place for over 45 years. A new place is waiting for all of us out there somewhere. It’s my job to find it.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Dummers Beach Journal....Part Three

A couple of nights ago we had our first fun weather event. After a gorgeous sunny day of 86 and a nice night around the campfire we got all snuggled in our amazing RV for the night. Earlier, on a whim, Pam had decided to put the 4 inflatable rafts we had been using in the huge storage bay under the RV instead of leaving them on the ground as we had done all week. In literary circles this plot device is called foreshadowing!!

Around 1:45 in the wee hours Pam and I became vaguely aware of a whistling noise from out side. Since we run the overhead fan all night and it makes such a horrendous racket we weren’t entirely certain what it was until we felt the RV start to rock gently from side to side. We quickly opened the shades to our bedroom window that faces the lake. Everything was awash in moonlight with only a few dark clouds off in the distance obscuring the view of Tumbledown. But the boats on the lake were all bobbing up and down wildly. The trees were bent over and small pieces of camp debris was flying through the air. We looked out the back window just about the time that our neighbors were evacuating their daughters from their freestanding tent in favor of the pop up camper. If Pam had left the rafts out in this mess we would have had to drive to Weld to find them! Pam walked down the hallway (yes..we have a HALLWAY in this beast!!) to check on the kids and to reassure them that ,in fact, this was NOT the end of the world. Kaitlin was enjoying the righteous sleep of the just, totally oblivious to the gale-force madness outside. Patrick was newly awake, not quite alert enough to understand what was happening but aware that his bed was rocking a pretty cool rhyme. Who knows, maybe it will inspire a composition that wins him some fabulous scholarship to graduate school.

Actually this is the sort of thing that I enjoy about camp in Maine. There’s a certain amount of fiction at play in Maine, an element of danger, a sense that all is not quite safe here. Anything might happen. Nothing is guaranteed. The uncertainty is visceral. It’s the thing that makes camp unique, the possibility of nature blowing a gasket. When I’m here, no matter how beautiful the weather is I always have one eye on the horizon with a mixture of dread and excitement.

Today I play golf. Then the afternoon on the beach. Then a lobster-roll dinner celebrating Pam’s 4-?? Birthday. I still feel awful, but its vacation so you have to plow through. I read my e-mails last night and discovered that there is a world of grief awaiting my return to Richmond. I will try to cast that depressing thought out of my mind for the next 5 days. In literary circles, that’s called denial.

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Dummers Beach Journal....Part Two

The trip up was uneventful with no rain and very little traffic except for the brief period when I let Pam take the wheel. As soon as she made her way back unto 495 in Eastern Mass. The interstate ground to a halt as if the Gods of transportation knew that something was just not right. An hour and a half and 45 miles later I had had enough. We pulled into a rest area in New Hampshire and I once again seized the wheel. When I merged back onto 95 the mysterious traffic jam had disappeared and it was smooth sailing. The thirteen and a half hour trip ended at 4:45 pm Saturday afternoon. The lake was beautiful, the mountain views stunning and clear, and my throat was on fire and my chest felt like there was an anvil sitting on it. Other than that all is well.

So far Pam has cried/ gotten choked up/ abruptly ended sentences about some Dummers memory only three times. I suspect that there will be many more. She actually had convinced herself that she was prepared to say good-bye to this place. I knew better. Just before I left Richmond I bought 100 shares of Kleenex.

Today it was 86 and sunny with a wonderful breeze. The rest of the week looks even more delightful with even lower temperatures. Our fancy new Rent-A-RV diggs are amazing. Air-conditioning, working fridge and freezer, queen size mattress actually thicker than the hard backed edition of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. This place is sweet. But just so we don’t start feeling cocky we have discovered that the AC leaks causing a small puddle to form right in front of the kitchen sink. And apparently this place does NOT come with a cleaning service as I was lead to believe. My father-in-law….such a cheap-skate!

Ordinarily I would head out to Wilson Lake to play golf in the morning. But I feel pretty lousy and am short of breath so I think I’ll give it another day.