This was the headline on Wednesday, December the 12th, 2007. The BBC warned us all that scientists in the US had made this bold forecast using state of the art computer models. The Polar ice cap was going to be "ice-free" by this time. Along with this dire forecast came calls for dramatic government "action". Al Gore practically gave himself a hernia jumping up and down warning everyone about this new study from the comfort of his 10,000 square foot, 9 million dollar, 191,000 kilowatt-hour consuming Nashville home.
So, imagine my surprise this morning to see this morning's headline in the UK Daily Mail.
I eagerly await Mr. Gore's assessment of this NASA satellite image. I also look forward to the press conference where the scientist responsible for the 2007 prediction will explain to us how he could possibly have been so fabulously wrong.
While I have no scientific knowledge or expertise, what I do have is enough common sense to know that a subject as maddeningly complex as global climate cannot be predicted with anything approaching certainty by computer models. How can we predict climate change fifty years down the road when we can't even get the weekend forecast right half the time? I little humility in discussions of this topic would be nice. Oh, and before we completely scrap the world's economic model based on hyperventilating former Vice-President's grave prognostications, how about a little candor about the flimsy reliability of computer models?
I remember my first semester at UVa, I was walking through the dining hall when I was stopped by yet another student body organization, the leaders of which began shoving various leaflets into my hands. Apparently even shuffling huriedly past them, awkwardly avoiding eye contact doesn't get the point across... Anyways, one of the reps looked at me, austere and determined, and asked "What do you think about global warming?" Without flinching I responded that the unfounded, government-funded theory is a farce. You should have seen the look on this guy's face as I walked away. Needless to say, I never signed up to be a part of the organization.
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